As it becomes clear to the ruling elite that Ukraine will lose the war, I anticipate that they will attempt to transfer blame from themselves for provoking and cheerleading the war to the House Republicans for withholding military aid. Although I agree with the House refusal to send more aid to Ukraine and the reason for that refusal, I also recognize that they too, for the most part, are clueless as to the futility of continued funding. If Ukraine were to have any chance against the Russians (which they don’t), what they need is not more cash but more ammunition, especially artillery rounds and air defense missiles.
If you think we should send more 155mm artillery ammunition to Ukraine, you are conveniently forgetful. You forget the controversy last summer over the U.S. decision to send 155mm cluster munitions to Ukraine. Biden’s candid justification for it was that we didn’t have enough standard 155mm ammunition. Why is that?
According to a report in Defense One, the U.S. was producing 14,000 rounds of 155mm ammunition per month when Russia invaded Ukraine. By end of December of 2023, they had doubled production to 28,000 rounds per month. They hope to increase monthly production to 36,000 by March and 70,000 to 80,000 in early 2025.
Is that enough? Well, Ukraine’s shoots off 6,000 rounds per day. You do the math. If Ukraine takes Sunday off, the U.S. at best is currently producing enough 155mm artillery ammunition each month to last Ukraine a week. Forget Israel and forget our own depleted stocks and those of other allies. Army procurement plans to increase production in order to reach 80,000 rounds per month in 2025. By then, of course, it will be too late. And all of this in contrast to Russia, who is currently producing 80,000 rounds per month and on track to reach 150,000.
The story of air defense interceptor missiles, which Ukraine is effectively out of, is not so optimistic. The army owns the artillery ammo factories, so they can expand for surge production. Patriot missiles are manufactured by private industry at around $4 million per missile. They have no surge capacity. Our own stocks are depleted along with those of our European allies. There are none to send to Ukraine.
And none of this considers that fact that Ukraine lacks the personnel, let alone adequately trained personnel, to use the equipment and ammunition we can’t send them. In short, Ukraine is running out of people they can send to their slaughter on the front lines.
So what is the use of sending billions of dollars to Ukraine if the shelves are bare? Are they going to stuff quarters into their artillery and shoot them at the Russians?
The claim that the Republicans in congress are responsible for Ukraine losing the war is either hopelessly stupid, or it is a damned lie. Those responsible for Ukraine losing the war are (in descending order of contribution): (1) the Russian military, including its military industrial production; (2) the Biden Administration, especially the State Department and the National Security Council, for provoking a war that Ukraine could never win; and (3) the Ukrainian political and military leadership, who are too busy pocketing U.S. aid dollars and posturing to acquire more to deal with Russia.
The solution is obvious. Stop resisting Russia. Ukraine lost the southeastern regions of Ukraine. They deserved to lose them. They brutally oppressed them and maliciously insisted on joining NATO. But if they stop fighting, cede southeastern Ukraine to Russia, commit to neutrality and get rid of the Nazis in their government and military, Russia will be satisfied with the territory they have already annexed.
However, if Ukraine keeps fighting, there’s a good chance Russia will also take Kharkov and Odessa, both Russian cities. And Ukraine will continue to lose its male population, around 500,000 so far. Their military is on the verge of collapse and Russia’s is growing in number and strength. It will probably be over by summer this year.
All of this, including the ammunition shortage, has been happening steadily since the summer of 2022, in spite of the supposed Ukrainian territorial gains in the fall of 2022. In fact, those territorial gains actually contributed to their defeat, not to mention their counter-offensive in the summer of 2023. Do you doubt me?
Will you also be surprised when it Ukraine collapses in total defeat? It depends on whom you have been relying on for news about Russia, Ukraine and the war. Keep in mind that the same people who blame congressional Republicans for Ukraine losing the war are those who told you that Russia’s economy, military and arms industry were weak and would all fail long before now. They are all either incompetent or corrupt, inexcusably ignorant or just plain lying. As Americans, we are either resisting their lies or enabling them. And in enabling them, we are also complicit in the destruction and deaths in Ukraine.
Fightin' Words 